Galaxy research chief: Bitcoin selling pressure triggered by Mt. Gox will be smaller than expected
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, wrote on the X platform that creditors have been trapped in the bankruptcy of Mt. Gox for more than a decade, and BTC and BCH in-kind compensation are expected to start in July, but the final number of tokens distributed will be less than people thought, and the bitcoin selling pressure caused by Mt. Gox will be smaller than expected. Mt. Gox lost about 940,000 bitcoins that year, which were worth $424 million at the time. So far, it has recovered 15%, or 141,868 bitcoins. Although it has only recovered 15%, it has made 140 times the return for creditors in dollar terms.
Creditors need to bear about 10% of the loss, it is expected that 75% of BTC will choose to bear 10% of the loss, which means that there will be about 95,000 bitcoins for payment of claims, of which about 20,000 tokens are owed to the application fund, 10,000 tokens are owed to Bitcoinica BK, and about 6500 are owed to individual creditors (6500 is much lower than the 141868 previously released by the media).
Creditors are clearly biased towards long-term bitcoin holders, but there is also reason to believe that individual creditors will be more generous than the market expects. Once these tokens are distributed, a significant portion will be sold by creditors into less liquid markets. All tokens will be distributed to the creditor accounts of Kraken, Bitstamp, or Bitgo. Once the coins are transferred to these entities, it is expected to take 24-72 hours to appear in user accounts.