Bank of America's brokerage team said in the report that the Fed's September rate cut was already on the board, but there was no need for an aggressive rate cut that would lead to a recession. Almost all of the increase in unemployment in July came from temporary layoffs, indicating only temporary weakness. Employment is likely to rebound and unemployment is likely to fall in the August report. "Without layoffs, there would be no recession in the United States, and layoffs remain extremely low," they said. "Aggressive rate cuts of 50 basis points or more are done in an emergency, as are actions taken between meetings, but we are not there yet," BofA said, arguing that the rate-cutting cycle would start in September with 25 basis points per quarter until it reaches an end point of 3.25-3.5 per cent by mid-2026.