Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors, the founder of the Sam Rule, personally wrote that the U.S. economy is not yet in recession, but is "disturbingly close to recession," and it is time for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Claudia Sahm said that the risk of a recession has increased, which strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The rise in unemployment over the past year, as reflected in the Sam Rule, now looks beyond normal levels, and is close to recession. It is time for the Federal Reserve to use its tools and lower interest rates. It is reported that Sam's Law is an indicator that predicts a recession, arguing that once the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage points higher than the low of the past year, it means that a recession has begun.