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Analysis: Volatility intensified after the bitcoin halving event, indicating a speculative trend in the trading environment

One-week implied volatility, a key indicator of market sentiment, has been relatively stable at around 50 per cent at the start of the year after briefly surging in early January and mid-February, according to Glassnode. However, as Bitcoin approached the halving event in April, volatility spiked, peaking at more than 80 percent, as traders anticipated possible market turbulence. Despite a brief dip following the halving, volatility resurfaced mid-year on the back of increased market uncertainty, which could be related to regulatory developments and macroeconomic conditions. Comparing the current level of volatility with the broader historical context, volatility in 2024 is trending upwards when compared to a more temperate environment in 2023. The continued surge in the indicator suggests that traders are increasingly taking short-term market risks into account, underlining the more speculative trading environment following the halving event. This trend is likely to continue as market participants respond to the changing regulatory landscape and global economic changes that affect bitcoin price trends.