Analysis: A stronger yen could create a negative feedback loop for global risk assets, and crypto traders need to exercise caution
On August 19, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar has risen by 2.4% since last Thursday to 145 yen to the US dollar, indicating a preference for safe-haven currencies. Similar yen strength triggered the unwinding of carry trades in early August, causing large fluctuations in risk assets including bitcoin. Bitcoin prices fell from about $70,000 to $50,000 in the first eight days of August 5, and then rebounded to $60,000 as the dollar rebounded against the yen. Renowned trader Simon Ree and Goldman Sachs head of crypto trading Andrei Kazantsev both pointed out that the strength of the yen could lead to a negative feedback loop for risk assets around the world. According to ING's analysis, a rebound in the yen could change market behavior, increasing the willingness to buy when the yen weakens, thus increasing the risk of a stronger yen.
The carry trade unwinding is likely to continue in the coming weeks as the Fed approaches its mid-September interest rate decision-making meeting. Arnim Holzer, global macro strategist at Easterly EAB Risk Solutions, said that if the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points, the market could rise before falling, as concerns about the economy and the strength of the yen will reignite the carry trade unwinding.