On August 22, Goldman Sachs said in a research report released this week that according to the current situation, this year's US election may have a "lame duck President Harris" outcome. Goldman Sachs said that at the national polling level, Harris currently leads Trump by about 1.5 percentage points and has a lead in the key swing state of Pennsylvania. Overall, Harris has a 52% to 54% chance of winning in November. Since she took over the banner of taking on Trump from Biden, the election has continued to rise in the past month. Since August 1 this year, the probability of a Republican winning the election has dropped by 10 percentage points, and the probability of a Democrat winning the election but a Republican controlling both houses of Congress or at least one chamber has increased by 11 percentage points. Goldman Sachs also pointed out that while this is the most likely implied scenario at present, the outcome is still highly uncertain. (Jin Ten)