On August 24th, China Merchants Securities commented on Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference. Powell's speech implied that "the economy has normalized", and then monetary policy needs to be "normalized". 1. Supply constraints have been normalized, and confidence in the decline in inflation has increased significantly. 2. Employment is no longer "overheated", and the risk of employment deterioration is emphasized; 3. Following the FOMC in July, the risks of re-confirming the dual mandate have changed: the upside risk of inflation has weakened, and the downside risk of employment has increased. There is little doubt that interest rate cuts will be cut in September, and subsequent interest rate cuts may continue to follow until there is significant downward pressure on the US economy. Looking ahead to next year, the outcome of the election will have a greater impact on the pace of interest rate cuts. If Harris takes office, more consecutive interest rate cuts may be seen in the short term; but if Trump is elected, the Federal Reserve may have a wait-and-see mood on inflation under the influence of tariffs. Maintain judgment on various assets: the volatility of US stocks intensified before the election, bullish on US bonds, and non-US currencies remained relatively strong relative to the US dollar. The volatility of US stocks may intensify before the election, and it cannot be ruled out that they will rebound again before the election, but the rebound may still be a profit-taking window. (Jin Ten)