According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in August is 91.1%, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 8.8%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 0.1%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 38.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 56.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 5.1%.