Bitfinex released a report saying, "The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this month is expected to significantly affect the short-term volatility and long-term movement of Bitcoin. Bitcoin has rallied more than 32% since the beginning of August, mainly driven by traders' expectations of dovish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve. A 25 basis point rate cut could mark the start of a typical easing cycle, which could lead to a long-term price increase for Bitcoin as liquidity increases and recession fears ease. On the other hand, a larger rate cut of 50 basis points could cause an immediate price surge for Bitcoin, but a correction could follow as recession fears intensify. In the past week, we have seen spot holders reducing their exposure to risk, while speculators in the perpetual contract market have attempted'bottom fishing ', and we continue to observe a large number of long unpositioned squaring contracts on Bitcoin perpetual contracts. If we were to make a forecast, we would warn of a possible 15-20% drop at the time of this month's rate cut, with a possible bottom for Bitcoin between $40,000 and $50,000. This is not an arbitrary number, but is based on the fact that the percentage of returns peak decreases by about 60-70% per cycle and the average bull market pullback is also decreasing. But if macroeconomic conditions change, this logic could be easily dismissed. For traders, these moments are full of uncertainty.