Outlier Ventures researcher Jasper De Maere wrote that the 2024 halving is the 5th period of the Bitcoin halving, and the BTC price has performed worst in 125 days after the halving. The price is down 8% compared to the day of the halving, compared to an average increase of 22% in previous periods. We believe that the 2016 halving was the last time that the halving had a significant and fundamental impact on the price movement of BTC. Since then, in the context of an increasingly mature and diverse crypto market, the size of the BTC block reward for miners has become negligible. The strong performance of the BTC and cryptocurrency markets after the 2020 halving is purely coincidental, as the 2020 halving occurred during a period of unprecedented global capital injections following the COVID-19 pandemic, with the US money supply (M2) increasing by 25.3% that year alone. It has been argued that the halving-driven 4-year cycle still holds true in 2024, but the January 2024 BTCETF approval pulled demand ahead of schedule, causing BTC to rise strongly ahead of the halving. This claim is false. The BTCETF approval is a demand-driven catalyst, while the halving is a supply-driven catalyst, so they are not mutually exclusive. In the 125-day period following the halving, the fifth cycle (2024) was the worst performing period since the halving, and the only cycle in which the price of BTC fell compared to the day of the halving.