Federal Reserve mouthpiece: If there is another "thunder" tonight, a significant interest rate cut will be imminent
The Federal Reserve mouthpiece Nick Timiraos published an article on the occasion of the upcoming release of non-farm payroll data in August, saying that tonight's employment report will affect the Federal Reserve's rate cut. If the non-farm payroll in August is another bad employment report, it may lead to a sharp 50 basis point cut in the Federal Reserve, but if the employment situation is good, it will keep the Federal Reserve on the track of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points. At the Fed's Sept. 17-18 meeting, the debate will focus on whether to start cutting rates by the more traditional 25 basis points or by a larger 50 basis points to prevent unwanted weakness in the labor market.
The August hiring and employment report, due tonight, will be key to the decision to cut rates. A decent jobs report could prompt officials to start a possible series of rate cuts with a 25 basis point cut. Friday also happens to be the last day Fed officials can communicate publicly before a self-imposed pre-meeting silence period begins. New York Fed President William Williams and Fed Governor Paul Waller are scheduled to speak after the jobs report, a last chance to set expectations for the upcoming meeting.
Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said there was a very strong case for a 50 basis point cut. The labour market is not in recession, but it is on thin ice. Even with Friday's good data, the weakness in the labour market is intensifying.