RBC capital markets economist Michael Reid said a 50 basis point rate cut would be a high probability event if the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. But he also said that if the unemployment rate falls and job growth remains at 100,000 or more, the Fed will be cautious about cutting interest rates significantly. Especially with the presidential election looming, the Fed could be accused of favoring the ruling party by cutting interest rates to boost the economy. The futures market expects the Federal Reserve to usher in the first rate cut of 25 basis points this month, the cumulative rate cut this year will reach 1 percentage point, and there will be several 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025.