According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 87.6%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 12.4%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 29.8%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 62.0%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 8.2%.