4E Exchange: US CPI falls for five consecutive years, but core inflation does not recede, and interest rate cuts are expected to be hit
On September 12th, according to the observation of 4E Exchange, the year-on-year growth rate of the US CPI fell to 2.5% in August, falling for the fifth consecutive month, but the core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month higher than expected. The market lowered its expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut rose to 85%.
After the data was released, US stocks experienced a V-shaped rebound after the opening plunge, with the three major stock indexes closing higher across the board. The Dow edged up 0.31%, the Nasdaq closed up 2.17%, and the S & P 500 closed up 1.07%. Technology stocks led the rebound, with Nvidia rising more than 8%. In foreign exchange and commodity markets, the US dollar index rose strongly, non-US currencies were generally under pressure, and gold plunged significantly.
CPI data shows the Federal Reserve is approaching its 2% target, a change that will support future rate cuts, boding risk assets and supporting longer-term gains in U.S. stocks and cryptoassets such as bitcoin. But the Fed's focus on core inflation could lead to more cautious monetary policy, limiting short-term market upside.
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