The US CFTC has warned of an imminent outbreak of election betting, seeking a court extension to suspend the Kalshi political prediction market
The CFTC warned of an "imminent outbreak of election betting" and asked the appeals court to extend the suspension of Kalshi's political prediction market. "The district court's order has been interpreted by Kalshi and others as an open season for election betting," the CFTC said in a filing on Saturday.
Judge Jia Cobb of the District of Columbia recently issued a formal opinion, ruling that the CFTC did not have the authority to conduct a "public interest review" to prevent Kalshi from listing on the US political prediction market. Judge Cobb pointed out that Kalshi's contracts did not involve illegal activities or gambling, but were about elections, neither of which fell under the jurisdiction of the CFTC. The US Congress has now revoked the CFTC's public review of certain proposed futures contracts, saying that unless the contracts fall under specific categories such as terrorism or gambling.
Following the decision, Interactive Brokers, a Wall Street heavyweight, announced that it would offer contracts on the presidential election through a CFTC-regulated subsidiary, the CFTC noted. Unless the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia extends the suspension of the Kalshi contract pending appeal, other CFTC-regulated exchanges will follow suit, the agency said. "The proliferation of election betting on US futures exchanges will harm the public interest." The CFTC reiterated that the harms included market manipulation and "damage to election integrity".