UBS said it was closely monitoring retail sales and industrial production data ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and that weakness in the data could affect the Fed's decision to cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points instead of 25 basis points. The bank said US inflation had slowed to the point where it could cut rates. It outlined their "base case" of a 100 basis point cut for the rest of the year and another 100 basis points in 2025. The US dollar will fall further and gold will rise further as the pace of rate cuts accelerates, UBS added.