China International Capital Corporation: The likelihood of a soft landing for the U.S. economy in the short term will further increase
Judging from the interest rate decision, the Federal Reserve has taken a larger 50 basis point rate cut, which is more aggressive than we expected. The monetary policy statement pointed out that recent inflation data has given policymakers more confidence in achieving the 2% inflation target. The Fed's actions suggest that its response function has completely shifted from focusing on inflation to focusing on employment. We take this as a signal that the Fed has low tolerance for rising unemployment and that officials do not want to risk undermining the bright prospects of a "soft landing".
Based on Powell's statement, we believe that any unemployment rate above 4.4% in the future could trigger more interest rate cuts. This also suggests that the Federal Reserve will remain "dovish" until the data on the labor market stabilizes. Looking forward, the probability of a soft landing in the short term will further increase due to the Fed's deeper interest rate cuts.