CITIC Securities: The Federal Reserve's 50bps interest rate cut is an early preventive interest rate cut
The CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50bp at its September 2024 interest rate meeting, exceeding some market expectations. The statement of the interest rate meeting changed a lot from the previous one, showing the Fed's confidence in cooling inflation and support for the labor market. The dot plot shows that the target interest rate center this year is 4.4%, lower than the 5.1% in the June 2024 meeting, while lowering the target level of interest rates for next year. Powell said that there is no preset path for interest rate cuts. He still makes decisions one meeting at a time and continues to emphasize policy flexibility. At the same time, he is more optimistic about the economic situation and the labor market, and still paints a "soft landing" picture. We believe that the Federal Reserve's 50bp interest rate cut is a pre-emptive interest rate cut, intended to maintain the current state of economic growth and the job market, while maintaining subsequent policy flexibility. It is expected that there will be two 25bp interest rate cuts this year. After the overnight interest rate cut is expected to be fulfilled, it is expected that the market may return to the "soft landing" trade in the short term. The downward space for US bond interest rates is limited. US stocks may continue to be in a high-volatility state. Sectors such as biotechnology and real estate often perform better in the "soft landing" interest rate cut trade. (Jin Ten)