Goldman Sachs: The Bank of England is expected to hold its ground and interest rates will fall to 3% faster.
Goldman Sachs expects the Bank of England to vote 7-2 in favor of keeping interest rates unchanged, with no clear direction on the way forward. The APF reduction is expected to be £100 billion. Successive rate cuts from November 2024 to August 2025 are expected to bring interest rates to 3.00%, with a 40% probability in this base scenario. The previous forecast was for interest rates to reach 3.00% by August 2026. Goldman Sachs pointed to three reasons for adjusting its expectations, including increased confidence that wage growth will cool significantly in the coming months, inflation progress is likely to accelerate significantly in 2025, the simple Taylor rule points to faster normalisation, and consecutive rate cuts by most developed country central banks.