The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by only another 25bp this year.
Citadel Securities said the strong US economy and stubborn inflation would lead the Fed to cut rates only once more in 2024. "I would venture to say we end up with only 25 basis points for the rest of the year," Michael de Pass, global head of interest rate trading at Citadel Securities, said in an interview. The market "is still suggesting 50 basis points this year. When we look at it, both in terms of the strength of the underlying economy and the stickiness of inflation, that number is a bit too high." In the wake of strong US job creation data in September, swap traders have trimmed their expectations for further Fed rate cuts and now expect a cut of about 47 basis points by the end of 2024. Before the jobs report, they expected a cut of about 75 basis points by the end of the year. Michael de Pass said the adjustment made sense but was still too aggressive.