Given today's CPI report, the core PCE measure of inflation is likely to accelerate to 0.2% in September from 0.1% in August, but the annualized rate is "only slightly above the Fed's 2% target," analyst Paul Ashworth said in a note. The PCE data won't be released until the end of the month, and beyond that, tomorrow's PPI report will help adjust expectations. If his forecast is correct, the pace of inflation (falling back) "will support a more cautious 25 basis point cut by the Fed early next month," Ashworth said.