QCP Capital: US election and interest rate cuts are expected to benefit the crypto market, focusing on non-agricultural data next Friday
On October 23rd, QCP Capital, a Singapore-based crypto investment institution, published that the US election is only two weeks away, and it is currently in the spotlight. In the prediction market, Trump has begun to extend his lead over Harris, while the polls in key swing states are also leaning towards Republicans. The market is currently pricing in a possible Trump presidency. Talk of tariffs and tax cuts has led to a stronger dollar and higher US Treasury yields. Given Trump's more crypto-friendly stance, it is not surprising that bitcoin is trading higher.
The S & P 500 Index continues to set new all-time highs, with the yield on the US 2-year Treasury note once again surpassing 4%. Bitcoin has moved towards $69,000, driven by an unprecedented amount of unpositioned squaring contracts on exchanges. Total unpositioned squaring contracts on exchange futures now stand at $40.50 billion. The market is currently expecting a rate cut of 1.5 times in 2024. A stronger-than-expected labor market and the increased likelihood of a Trump presidency have reignited hopes that US economic growth will continue to be strong. With ongoing uncertainty in the labor market, all eyes are on the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls Report (NFP) next Friday. As the last NFP report before the next Fed meeting, it will play a key role in shaping market expectations for the Fed's next interest rate move. Bitcoin and Ethereum remain well supported and have upside potential ahead of the jobs data and the election.