QCP: The bearish trend of BTC and ETH continues to rise, and the election may return to the "good" market
The QCP released a weekend summary saying that Thursday's core PCE data was slightly better than expected (2.7% year-on-year growth versus 2.6% forecast). Conversely, Friday's non-farm payrolls (NFP) data was unexpectedly lower than expected (12,000 actually versus 110,000 forecast), causing the dollar index (DXY) to rebound and return to the 104 level.
Bitcoin hit an all-time high on Tuesday night, trading at a high of 73.6k, a performance fueled by expectations for election week. Despite Bitcoin's outstanding performance this week, Ethereum was relatively flat and failed to break through the 2.7k mark. On the back of strong ETF inflows, Bitcoin's net inflows exceeded $2.10 billion this week.
Despite Bitcoin falling below $69,000 on Friday, we are still seeing strong interest in the market, with total unpositioned squaring positions in BTC futures and BTC options remaining high at $40.65 billion and $25.30 billion, respectively. Short-term implied volatility in BTC and ETH remains above 72 volatility in the upcoming election week, with the tilt of put options rising as traders step up their protection against the downside.
Although Trump is considered a favorite to be the next president of the United States, the odds of Trump winning on Polymarket have fallen from a high of 66% to 57%, with Harris' approval rating at 43%. Regardless of the outcome, we believe the election will return to an "all-good" market, similar to the situation after the Nashville Bitcoin Conference.