Historical data shows that when the S & P 500 index (SPX) is higher in the three months leading up to an election, the incumbent party candidate has an 80% chance of winning. Conversely, when the S & P 500 index is lower in the three months leading up to an election, the other party candidate has an 89% chance of winning. This is understood to be a remarkably accurate signal in every election since 1928, and commentators say Mr. Harris is likely to win if the S & P 500 does not erase its 8 per cent gain since August in a day. At the same time, market experts interviewed also pointed out that the context of the current market and political landscape is very unique, making this election more likely to be an exception to the above historical experience. (Jin Ten)