Opinion: History shows that bitcoin is likely to rise after the US election, regardless of who wins
On November 4th, according to the analysis of CoinDesk, Bitcoin, which was born in 2009, is about to usher in the fourth US election. The data of the previous three elections shows that Bitcoin has maintained its upward momentum after the US election and has never fallen back to the price on Election Day. If this trend reappears, the price of Bitcoin should peak in about a year.
The 2012 U.S. election was also held on November 5, when the bitcoin price hovered around $11. In November 2013, the bitcoin price peaked, rising nearly 12,000 percent, and the bitcoin price climbed above $1,100.
In the first week of the US election in November 2016, the price of Bitcoin was around $700. In December 2017, the price of Bitcoin peaked at around $18,000, an increase of around 3,600%.
The US election in November 2020 coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic, and Bitcoin rallied 478% a year later to a market high of around $69,000. In March 2024, Bitcoin hit a new high above $73,000.
After each bitcoin halving event, although its price is much higher than it was four years ago, the gains have narrowed and the returns have gradually diminished. The percentage decrease between the first and second numbers is 70%, and between the second and third numbers is 87%. If we continue this trend and assume a decrease of about 90% this time, it would imply a post-election gain of about 47.8%. This would take bitcoin to about $103,500 in Q4 2025.