The Fed could pause its easing cycle as early as December if Mr. Trump wins the US election this week, according to David Kelly, an analyst at JPMorgan. Mr. Kelly believes Mr. Trump's expansionary fiscal policy plans will drive up inflation and stop interest rates from falling. "If Trump wins the election then he will be more expansionary in fiscal policy, potentially triggering a trade war, deficits will widen and interest rates will rise," he said. Mr. Kelly also said the Fed would almost certainly cut rates by 25 basis points in Friday's rate decision, even before the election.