Analysts: The US election will not change the long-term macro market outlook
Michael Brown, an analyst at Pepperstone, said a Trump victory could focus markets on reflation, expected tax cuts and potential tariffs. Initial market reactions could include a stronger dollar and a decline in Treasuries. Expectations of a lighter regulatory burden could boost stocks, particularly energy and defense stocks.
A Harris victory could weaken the dollar, he said, as trade-sensitive foreign exchange markets would "breathe a sigh of relief" as hedging related to Trump is lifted. Expectations of more expansionary fiscal policy could weigh on Treasuries, while concerns about tighter regulation could weigh on stocks. However, the decline could be quickly absorbed into bargains, with clean energy and technology stocks likely to perform better. Much depends on the makeup of Congress. To those wondering whether the election will change the long-term macro or market outlook, Brown's answer is "absolutely not." (Jin Ten)