QCP Capital: Bitcoin's risk premium relative to stocks is expected to decrease
On November 8th, Singapore crypto investment institution QCP Capital issued a document saying that yesterday, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF 1.38 billion US dollars, a record high, coupled with the optimism brought by Trump's victory and the broad expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points, jointly pushed the price of Bitcoin to 77,000 US dollars earlier this morning.
However, investors are starting to pull back some of the "Trump trade": the dollar has given up most of its post-election gains, while Treasury yields have fallen back into their recent range after a brief bout of big swings. As markets consider Mr. Trump's proposed 60 per cent tariffs on China and fiscal issues such as rising Treasuries, bitcoin's risk premium against equities is expected to fall, potentially putting it on track to outperform other risky assets.
Bitcoin's continued bullish sentiment could also create a feedback loop in which an increase in ETF inflows pushes up the bitcoin price, which in turn attracts more retail capital and systemic funds to buy as volatility decreases.