According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 88.6%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 11.4%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 34.6%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 58.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 6.9%.