ANZ said we expect the RBNZ to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.25% next week. This would be in line with the RBNZ's October message, economists' forecasts and market pricing. Data since the October monetary policy review has been mixed, but it looks like no data could disrupt plans. Data will make a decision after this meeting, but with the official cash rate (OCR) closer to neutral, our base expectation is that the RBNZ will reduce the pace of easing to a standard rate cut of 25 basis points, with rates reaching a low of 3.5% in May next year.