Mechanism Capital: ETH is expected to fall to between $2,400 and $3,000 after the launch of the ETH spot ETF
Mechanism Capital co-founder Andrew Kang said on social media that Ethereum ETF traffic will account for around 10% to 15% of Bitcoin ETF traffic, resulting in real net purchases of around $500 million to $1.50 billion in six months.
Ethereum is more of a technology asset than a macro asset like BTC. In addition, there is less interest and buying pressure from institutional investors on Ethereum, as Ethereum's current valuation metrics (e.g. price-to-earnings ratio) make it difficult for traditional financial allocators to accept. Before any ETF launch, Ethereum was positioned differently from Bitcoin, as the asset had risen 4x from its lows, while BTC had risen 2.75x before its ETF launch.
As a result, Kang expects ETH to trade between $3,000 and $3,800 before the ETF launches, but could fall to between $2,400 and $3,000 after the launch. A fall to a lower valuation would reduce the asset's current value by 30%.