Barclays is now predicting that the Fed's quantitative tightening will end in September rather than March, citing the absence of any mention of balance sheet reduction in meeting notes issued last month. The Fed's decision to halt balance sheet reduction is likely to depend more on the ratio of reserves to bank assets than on a specific date, Barclays strategist Joseph Abate wrote in a note. Barclays assumes the Fed wants to reduce reserves to about 12 per cent of assets, a threshold that could be reached by August 2025 in the absence of the debt ceiling.