Traders are betting heavily that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates next week
Friday's overnight index swaps showed a 99 per cent chance of the BoJ taking action at its January 23-24 meeting, up sharply from 71 per cent on Wednesday. Kazuo Ueda, BoJ governor, reinforced market expectations on Wednesday, with his comments pushing the yen higher.
He said the central bank would make a decision on raising interest rates next week and said confidence in wage growth was growing. That signal became more pronounced on Thursday. Barring too many surprises from Mr. Trump's arrival in the White House, Bank of Japan officials see a strong chance of raising interest rates, according to foreign media reports. The yen is enjoying its biggest weekly gain since late November. Yields on Japanese government bonds rose across the board, with the yield on two-year government bonds, which are sensitive to monetary policy expectations, rising to its highest level since 2008 on Wednesday.
"It's almost certain that the BoJ will raise interest rates next week, and the last hurdle is Trump's policy, but I don't think the market will be extremely volatile because of his inauguration speech," said Yukio Ishiki, senior currency strategist at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo.