Next week's macro outlook: The Trump 2.0 era is about to unveil, and bitcoin may fly higher
On January 18, news, in the last trading week before Trump returns to the White House, positive inflation data and dovish remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Waller have led to a recovery in market interest rate cut expectations. Money markets are currently pricing the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in 2025 at about 40 basis points. With the Federal Reserve entering a period of silence and the US economic data relatively light next week, the market will focus on the start of Trump's presidency and its potential market impact. Here are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:
The annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos will be held on Monday until January 24.
Wednesday 23:00, the US December Conference Board leading indicator monthly rate;
On Wednesday at 23:05 and Friday at 18:00, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech.
Thursday at 21:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending January 18.
On Friday, the Bank of Japan will release its interest rate decision and economic outlook report, and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a monetary policy press conference at 12:30.
On Friday at 22:45, the S & P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI for January was released.
Bitcoin has the potential to fly higher given that Trump is expected to announce crypto-friendly policies. According to people familiar with the matter, Trump plans to issue an executive order that elevates cryptocurrencies to a "policy priority" and gives industry insiders a voice over in his administration, marking a possible major shift in U.S. cryptocurrency policy. It is reported that the executive order will also include a suspension of any litigation involving cryptocurrencies and consideration of establishing a national bitcoin reserve.