Kalshi predicts that users on the market now believe there is a 79% chance that Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht will be pardoned by President-elect Donald Trump within 100 days of taking office. Ulbricht created Silk Road, a dark web marketplace for contraband and services, in 2011 under the alias "Dread Pirate Roberts." After a two-year investigation into the online black market, US law enforcement officials arrested Ulbricht in October 2013, shut it down and seized about 174,000 bitcoins.