On February 1st, Polymarket predicted that the probability of "the United States establishing a bitcoin national reserve in 2025" reached 51%, down about 14% from the previous high of 65%. At present, the cumulative bet amount of the forecast reaches 581,400 US dollars, and the deadline is December 31, 2025. The criterion for judgment is that the US government holds any amount of bitcoin in its reserves, excluding bitcoin confiscated by the US government. The main source of judgment will be official information from the US government or the Federal Reserve, and will also refer to credible reports with consensus recognition.