According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in August is 89.7%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 10.3%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 35.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 57.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 6.2%.