According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in August is 91.2%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 8.8%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 34.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 59.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 5.4%.