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U.S. inflation remains stubborn, traders continue to bet on a July rate cut

The Fed's preferred measure of inflation continued to rise at a stubborn pace in February, data showed, while a weaker-than-expected monthly rate of personal spending suggested weaker-than-expected household demand, suggesting that consumers are becoming more cautious amid growing concerns about their finances. Stock index futures fell further after the data, while Treasury yields remained low. Swap traders continue to expect two 25 basis point rate cuts this year, with the first cut expected in July. Today's report suggests that inflation is stubborn, while Trump's planned tariffs have the potential to further exacerbate price pressures. His aggressive trade policies have dented business and consumer confidence, and signs of mounting financial stress on households have raised fears that the economy could slip into stagflation or even recession.