The probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 has risen to 60 percent, according to Polymarket, a prediction market with total trading volume of $2.48 million and expiration date of February 28, 2026. According to the data, the probability of this forecast market has been rising continuously since the beginning of March, gradually climbing from around 20% to 60% currently. According to market rules, if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declares a recession in 2025, or if the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data shows two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, the forecast will be judged as "yes".