Opinion: Bitcoin volatility is expected to continue to decline
With each halving of bitcoin, its volatility is expected to continue to decline. The next halving is scheduled for 2028, when bitcoin will be four times scarcer than gold. André Dragosch, head of research at ETC Group, said volatility structurally decreases over time as retail and institutional adoption of crypto increases.
Although the annualized volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum is currently around 45% to 50%, while the S & P 500 is around 15%, the volatility of cryptoassets is gradually decreasing. For example, Bitcoin's volatility was as high as 200% in its initial stages, but has recently dropped to 45%. This is mainly due to the increased scarcity of Bitcoin, making it more "gold".
Dragosch pointed out that as the diversity of investors increases, the divergence between buyers and sellers will also increase, thus reducing volatility. This trend is expected to continue in the future, especially as crypto assets gain further popularity and adoption. Investors need to understand that where there is growth, there is volatility, but that volatility is gradually decreasing.