Derivatives traders are confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year
Treasuries rose, yields fell and mixed data from the labour market kept traders betting that Federal Reserve officials would cut rates this year. While the June non-farm payrolls report showed higher-than-expected job growth, previous months had seen downward revisions and higher unemployment. Derivatives market traders have further strengthened their bets on rate cuts, with their expectations for the probability of two rate cuts this year again reaching 100%. The current view is that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates as early as September is around 76%. Jeff Klingelhofer, co-head of investment at Thornburg Investment Management, said: "I think there is still room for US Treasuries to rise, from Powell's recent statements, he has a strong tendency to start a moderate easing cycle, the labour market is returning to a better balance, inflation is facing downside risks, and the economy may slide into recession." Jeffrey Rosenberg, portfolio manager at BlackRock, said: "We need another round of data to solidify the September rate cut expectation, and more importantly, the inflation data next week, and the data next month."