According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in August is 94.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 5.7%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 27.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 68.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 4.0%.