According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in August is 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 4.7%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 28.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 68.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 3.3%.