According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in August is 93.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 6.7%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 0%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 88.6%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 11%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points is 0.3%.