The latest forecast of the "Federal Reserve's megaphone": the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is finally in sight
The latest article by "Fed Messenger" Nick Timiraos says that while Fed officials are unlikely to cut interest rates next week, developments in inflation and the labor market should cause officials to signal a rate cut at the September meeting. Powell, who prefers to act early, has been weighing the risks of cutting rates too early and waiting too long, an issue that will be addressed at next week's meeting. Officials hope to have more evidence that inflation is indeed cooling before crossing the threshold for rate cuts. Still, officials are increasingly concerned that waiting too long could lead to a soft landing bubble. The Fed's readiness to cut rates reflects three factors: positive inflation, a cooling job market, and a changing calculus about the twin risks of allowing inflation to remain too high and creating unnecessary economic weakness.