According to a report by 10x Research, based on historical analysis, bitcoin returns tend to be flat in August and decline in September. However, the "tail wind" from US interest rate policy, falling inflation and the election calendar may cushion the downward pressure caused by the unlocking of $1 billion tokens in August. While it expects Bitcoin to break out eventually, Bitcoin will most likely need help from the "macro", where the Federal Reserve expects a rate cut or inflation to move lower again. Traders will have to watch Bitcoin as the price approaches the top of the range. The FOMC meeting on July 31 and the US CPI report on August 14 will be crucial.