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DBS Bank: The Federal Reserve will open the door to cutting interest rates

Philip Wee, FX analyst at DBS, noted that the dollar index was little changed at 104.07 ahead of today's FOMC meeting. During the overnight session, the dollar touched 104.80 at one point, close to where it fell on July 11 due to weaker U.S. CPI inflation. The Fed should leave the door open for a rate cut without supporting the market's aggressive bet (110% chance) on a September rate cut before seeing the U.S. unemployment data on August 2 and the CPI data on August 14. Assuming that the Federal Reserve becomes more confident that inflation is falling back towards its 2% target, or that concerns about rising unemployment increase, it may provide forward guidance on the timing of rate cuts at the Jackson Hole symposium on August 24-26.