CICC: The Federal Reserve's September interest rate cut should be a high-probability event
According to the China Gold Research Report, the overall tone of the Federal Reserve meeting was dovish, and several language adjustments hinted that the September interest rate cut was approaching. However, we also stressed that being able to cut interest rates does not mean that it will be cut many times, which is also the "particularity" of this round of interest rate cuts determined by this round of the US economic cycle. It is precisely because of the above particularities that compared with previous interest rate cuts, which are similar impact paths, this difference is mainly reflected in the rhythm, which may be faster and front-loaded. Failure to understand this may be "reversed" in transactions. From the statement of the meeting and Powell's remarks at the press conference after the meeting, the Federal Reserve gave further hints on the September interest rate cut, emphasizing that inflationary pressures have eased, emphasizing the balance of employment and inflation risks at the same time, rather than just inflation risks, all suggesting that if nothing unexpected (inflation continues to fall before the September interest rate cut), the September interest rate cut should be a high probability event.