Monex Europe said the dollar could rise if US retail sales data prompted the market to lower expectations of an overly aggressive rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Later data could show a modest pick-up in consumer activity in July, reinforcing the message that the US economy is still expanding, Monex analysts said in a note. "If we are right, the market should continue to align with our view of Fed easing and we expect this dynamic to be positive for [the dollar]." Monex expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, November and December, slightly less than the market currently expects.